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Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents
Published 09/04/2009 -6:00a.m.
Africa Report N°153
4 September 2009
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime
minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia’s political system. The regime transformed
the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined citizenship,
politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and
representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth and promised
democratisation, there is growing discontent with the EPRDF’s ethnically defined state and rigid
grip on power and fears of continued inter-ethnic conflict. The international community should
take Ethiopia’s governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position
towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and pressures in
Ethiopia’s polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would
destabilise the country and region.
The endeavour to transform Ethiopia into a federal state is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation
Front (TPLF), which has dominated the coalition of ethno-nationalist parties that is the EPRDF
since the removal in 1991 of the Derg, the security services committee that overthrew Emperor
Haile Selassie in 1974. The EPRDF quickly institutionalised the TPLF’s policy of people’s rights to
self-determination and self-rule. The federal constitution ratified in 1994 defined the country’s
structure as a multicultural federation based on ethno-national representation.
The government has created nine ethnic-based regional states and two federally administered
city-states. The result is an asymmetrical federation that combines populous regional states like
Oromiya and Amhara in the central highlands with sparsely populated and underdeveloped ones
like Gambella and Somali. Although the constitution vests all powers not attributed to the federal
government in them, the regional states are in fact weak.
The constitution was applauded for its commitment to liberal democracy and respect for political
freedoms and human rights. But while the EPRDF promises democracy, it has not accepted that
the opposition is qualified to take power via the ballot box and tends to regard the expression of
differing views and interests as a form of betrayal. Before 2005, its electoral superiority was
ensured by the limited national appeal and outreach of the predominantly ethnically based
opposition parties. Divided and disorganised, the reach of those parties rarely went beyond
Addis Ababa. When the opposition was able to challenge at local, regional or federal levels, it
faced threats, harassment and arrest. With the opportunity in 2005 to take over the Addis Ababa
city council in what would have been the first democratic change of a major administration in the
country’s history, the opposition withdrew from the political process to protest flaws in the
overall election.
The EPRDF did not feel threatened until the 2005 federal and regional elections. The crackdown
that year on the opposition demonstrated the extent to which the regime is willing to ignore
popular protest and foreign criticism to hold on to power. The 2008 local and by-elections went
much more smoothly, in large part because the opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy
(CUD) was absorbed with internal and legal squabbles, and several other parties withdrew after
their candidates experienced severe registration problems. The next federal and regional
elections, scheduled for June 2010, most probably will be much more contentious, as numerous
opposition parties are preparing to challenge the EPRDF, which is likely to continue to use its
political machine to retain its position.
Despite the EPRDF’s authoritarianism and reluctance to accept genuine multi-party competition,
political positions and parties have proliferated in recent years. This process, however, is not
driven by democratisation or the inclusion of opposition parties in representative institutions.
Rather it is the result of a continuous polarisation of national politics that has sharpened
tensions between and within parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s. The EPRDF’s ethnic
federalism has not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups that vie
over land and natural resources, as well as administrative boundaries and government budgets.
Furthermore, ethnic federalism has failed to resolve the “national question”. The EPRDF’s ethnic
policy has empowered some groups but has not been accompanied by dialogue and
reconciliation. For Amhara and national elites, ethnic federalism impedes a strong, unitary nation-
state. For ethno-national rebel groups like the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front; Somalis
in the Ogaden) and OLF (Oromo Liberation Front; the Oromo), ethnic federalism remains
artificial. While the concept has failed to accommodate grievances, it has powerfully promoted
ethnic self-awareness among all groups. The international community has ignored or downplayed
all these problems. Some donors appear to consider food security more important than
democracy in Ethiopia, but they neglect the increased ethnic awareness and tensions created by
the regionalisation policy and their potentially explosive consequences.
Nairobi/Brussels, 4 September 2009: Ethiopia’s governing coalition must improve democratic
practices or risk pre-election violence that could destabilise the region.
Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents,* the latest background report from the
International Crisis Group, examines the potential for a violent eruption of conflict in Ethiopia
ahead of the June 2010 elections amidst rising ethnic tensions and dissent. The international
community must stop ignoring and downplaying these problems, and instead encourage more
meaningful democratic governance in the country.
The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi, transformed the previously centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic in the
1990s, redefining citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The stated intent was to
create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all citizens.
“Ethnic federalism has not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups
fighting for land, natural resources, administrative boundaries and government budgets”, says
François Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director. “This concept has powerfully promoted
ethnic self-awareness among all groups and failed to accommodate grievances”.
As numerous opposition parties gear up to challenge the EPRDF in the June 2010 elections, many
fear a violent crackdown by the government, similar to the intimidation, harassment and violence
experienced by opposition parties during the 2005 election.
“Continuous polarisation of national politics has sharpened tensions between and within political
parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s”, says Daniela Kroslak, Crisis Group’s Deputy
Africa Program Director. “Donors must convince Ethiopia to improve current standards of
governance and promote democratic reform or risk future waves of violence and new
destabilisation in the Horn of Africa”.
To support our work in Africa and around the world, please click here.
*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635
Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1602
To contact Crisis Group media please click here
Click here to view the full report as a PDF file
Published 09/04/2009 -6:00a.m.
Africa Report N°153
4 September 2009
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime
minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia’s political system. The regime transformed
the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined citizenship,
politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and
representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth and promised
democratisation, there is growing discontent with the EPRDF’s ethnically defined state and rigid
grip on power and fears of continued inter-ethnic conflict. The international community should
take Ethiopia’s governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position
towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and pressures in
Ethiopia’s polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would
destabilise the country and region.
The endeavour to transform Ethiopia into a federal state is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation
Front (TPLF), which has dominated the coalition of ethno-nationalist parties that is the EPRDF
since the removal in 1991 of the Derg, the security services committee that overthrew Emperor
Haile Selassie in 1974. The EPRDF quickly institutionalised the TPLF’s policy of people’s rights to
self-determination and self-rule. The federal constitution ratified in 1994 defined the country’s
structure as a multicultural federation based on ethno-national representation.
The government has created nine ethnic-based regional states and two federally administered
city-states. The result is an asymmetrical federation that combines populous regional states like
Oromiya and Amhara in the central highlands with sparsely populated and underdeveloped ones
like Gambella and Somali. Although the constitution vests all powers not attributed to the federal
government in them, the regional states are in fact weak.
The constitution was applauded for its commitment to liberal democracy and respect for political
freedoms and human rights. But while the EPRDF promises democracy, it has not accepted that
the opposition is qualified to take power via the ballot box and tends to regard the expression of
differing views and interests as a form of betrayal. Before 2005, its electoral superiority was
ensured by the limited national appeal and outreach of the predominantly ethnically based
opposition parties. Divided and disorganised, the reach of those parties rarely went beyond
Addis Ababa. When the opposition was able to challenge at local, regional or federal levels, it
faced threats, harassment and arrest. With the opportunity in 2005 to take over the Addis Ababa
city council in what would have been the first democratic change of a major administration in the
country’s history, the opposition withdrew from the political process to protest flaws in the
overall election.
The EPRDF did not feel threatened until the 2005 federal and regional elections. The crackdown
that year on the opposition demonstrated the extent to which the regime is willing to ignore
popular protest and foreign criticism to hold on to power. The 2008 local and by-elections went
much more smoothly, in large part because the opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy
(CUD) was absorbed with internal and legal squabbles, and several other parties withdrew after
their candidates experienced severe registration problems. The next federal and regional
elections, scheduled for June 2010, most probably will be much more contentious, as numerous
opposition parties are preparing to challenge the EPRDF, which is likely to continue to use its
political machine to retain its position.
Despite the EPRDF’s authoritarianism and reluctance to accept genuine multi-party competition,
political positions and parties have proliferated in recent years. This process, however, is not
driven by democratisation or the inclusion of opposition parties in representative institutions.
Rather it is the result of a continuous polarisation of national politics that has sharpened
tensions between and within parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s. The EPRDF’s ethnic
federalism has not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups that vie
over land and natural resources, as well as administrative boundaries and government budgets.
Furthermore, ethnic federalism has failed to resolve the “national question”. The EPRDF’s ethnic
policy has empowered some groups but has not been accompanied by dialogue and
reconciliation. For Amhara and national elites, ethnic federalism impedes a strong, unitary nation-
state. For ethno-national rebel groups like the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front; Somalis
in the Ogaden) and OLF (Oromo Liberation Front; the Oromo), ethnic federalism remains
artificial. While the concept has failed to accommodate grievances, it has powerfully promoted
ethnic self-awareness among all groups. The international community has ignored or downplayed
all these problems. Some donors appear to consider food security more important than
democracy in Ethiopia, but they neglect the increased ethnic awareness and tensions created by
the regionalisation policy and their potentially explosive consequences.
Nairobi/Brussels, 4 September 2009: Ethiopia’s governing coalition must improve democratic
practices or risk pre-election violence that could destabilise the region.
Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents,* the latest background report from the
International Crisis Group, examines the potential for a violent eruption of conflict in Ethiopia
ahead of the June 2010 elections amidst rising ethnic tensions and dissent. The international
community must stop ignoring and downplaying these problems, and instead encourage more
meaningful democratic governance in the country.
The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi, transformed the previously centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic in the
1990s, redefining citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The stated intent was to
create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all citizens.
“Ethnic federalism has not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups
fighting for land, natural resources, administrative boundaries and government budgets”, says
François Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director. “This concept has powerfully promoted
ethnic self-awareness among all groups and failed to accommodate grievances”.
As numerous opposition parties gear up to challenge the EPRDF in the June 2010 elections, many
fear a violent crackdown by the government, similar to the intimidation, harassment and violence
experienced by opposition parties during the 2005 election.
“Continuous polarisation of national politics has sharpened tensions between and within political
parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s”, says Daniela Kroslak, Crisis Group’s Deputy
Africa Program Director. “Donors must convince Ethiopia to improve current standards of
governance and promote democratic reform or risk future waves of violence and new
destabilisation in the Horn of Africa”.
To support our work in Africa and around the world, please click here.
*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635
Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1602
To contact Crisis Group media please click here
Click here to view the full report as a PDF file
Articles by Fayyis Oromia
Aug 25, 09--A New Ethiopia with Afaan Oromo as the
National Language
Aug 20, 09--The universal truth about TPLF cadres in
cyber world
Aug 12, 09--Why was it easy for Meles' regime to rule
over Ethiopians?
Aug 03, 09--Working language of our future regional
UNION/genuine Ethiopian federation should be only
English!
July 23, 09--The question to be asked by Oromos in
Atlanta Georgia!
July 18, 09--Is WAAQ-AYYOO our KA-AYYOO / is our
KA-AYYOO the WAAQ-AYYOO?
Aug 25, 09--A New Ethiopia with Afaan Oromo as the
National Language
Aug 20, 09--The universal truth about TPLF cadres in
cyber world
Aug 12, 09--Why was it easy for Meles' regime to rule
over Ethiopians?
Aug 03, 09--Working language of our future regional
UNION/genuine Ethiopian federation should be only
English!
July 23, 09--The question to be asked by Oromos in
Atlanta Georgia!
July 18, 09--Is WAAQ-AYYOO our KA-AYYOO / is our
KA-AYYOO the WAAQ-AYYOO?
| Yesterday's Oromia |
| Today's Oromia |
1 Comment so far...
By Ogina
Re.: to Ethnic federalism and its discontents! No surprise, Only European colonizers and Abyssinians
villify the question of nations in Africa as some thing “ethnic”. None of them dare to call European
nations as such. Any ways, we can persuade Abeshas, but we will wait till the Europeans change
their negative attitude on nations in Africa. Can they tell me why Germans can be called as a nation
and Oromos be an ethny? Enjoy here:
“Persuading Amhara elites to accept and respect Self-determination
It is clear that only Amhara elites and few Amharanized elites from other nations are against
“ethnic” federalism and self-determination of nations. Genuine “ethnic” federalism is the
compromise solution for all nations in the region to live together - achieving both national
independence and regional integration. The position of Amhara elites regarding the federalism and
self-determination made them to be not suitable to cooperate with the elites of other nations
against TPLF regime. Amhara elites do prefer unconditional Ethiopian unity rather than self-
determination as a precondition for the possible alliance to be forged between Amhara democratic
forces and Oromo freedom fighters. Oromos tend to accept this precondition, only if Amhara elites
also accept Oromos’ precondition aka making Afaan Oromo the only working language of the
federation instead of Amharinya. Oromo elites make such a demand to make Amhara elites to notice
how wrong is their cry for unity with Amharinya!
as the only federal language. Then, in a common house aka “NEW Ethiopia” they suggest to build,
the working language must be only Afaan Oromo. Will they then stay to be pro Ethiopian unity and
anti ethnicity, even if Amharinya will be demoted to only local language of Amhara region and if
Afaan Oromo will be promoted to be the only working language of the Ethiopian federation? I am
sure they will not! In case they will stay further to be pro-Ethiopianity and pro-unity as they seem
to believe now, let’s then try this NEW version of Ethiopianity with Afaan Oromo instead of with
Amharinya.
Read more:
http://www.ethioplanet.com/medrek
In short, the best instrument to compel Amhara elites so that they accept and respect the
compromise solution aka genuine “ethnic” federalism and to make them recognize the right of
nations to self-determination is to demote Amharinya to be the local language and promote Afaan
Oromo to be the federal language, i.e a transformation of the empire to a NEW Ethiopia with Afaan
Oromo as the National Language!”
email = ogina@yahoo.com
By Ogina
Re.: to Ethnic federalism and its discontents! No surprise, Only European colonizers and Abyssinians
villify the question of nations in Africa as some thing “ethnic”. None of them dare to call European
nations as such. Any ways, we can persuade Abeshas, but we will wait till the Europeans change
their negative attitude on nations in Africa. Can they tell me why Germans can be called as a nation
and Oromos be an ethny? Enjoy here:
“Persuading Amhara elites to accept and respect Self-determination
It is clear that only Amhara elites and few Amharanized elites from other nations are against
“ethnic” federalism and self-determination of nations. Genuine “ethnic” federalism is the
compromise solution for all nations in the region to live together - achieving both national
independence and regional integration. The position of Amhara elites regarding the federalism and
self-determination made them to be not suitable to cooperate with the elites of other nations
against TPLF regime. Amhara elites do prefer unconditional Ethiopian unity rather than self-
determination as a precondition for the possible alliance to be forged between Amhara democratic
forces and Oromo freedom fighters. Oromos tend to accept this precondition, only if Amhara elites
also accept Oromos’ precondition aka making Afaan Oromo the only working language of the
federation instead of Amharinya. Oromo elites make such a demand to make Amhara elites to notice
how wrong is their cry for unity with Amharinya!
as the only federal language. Then, in a common house aka “NEW Ethiopia” they suggest to build,
the working language must be only Afaan Oromo. Will they then stay to be pro Ethiopian unity and
anti ethnicity, even if Amharinya will be demoted to only local language of Amhara region and if
Afaan Oromo will be promoted to be the only working language of the Ethiopian federation? I am
sure they will not! In case they will stay further to be pro-Ethiopianity and pro-unity as they seem
to believe now, let’s then try this NEW version of Ethiopianity with Afaan Oromo instead of with
Amharinya.
Read more:
http://www.ethioplanet.com/medrek
In short, the best instrument to compel Amhara elites so that they accept and respect the
compromise solution aka genuine “ethnic” federalism and to make them recognize the right of
nations to self-determination is to demote Amharinya to be the local language and promote Afaan
Oromo to be the federal language, i.e a transformation of the empire to a NEW Ethiopia with Afaan
Oromo as the National Language!”
email = ogina@yahoo.com